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"rc_apex_1900": 2.88, "rc_apex_2025": 2.72, "d_rc_apex_pct": -5.8, "alpha_ratio_cd": 0.953, "alpha_ratio_apex": 0.973 }, { "place": "Paris", "lat": 48.86, "lon": 2.35, "cd_1900": 51.1, "cd_2025": 50.21, "d_cd": -0.89, "apex_1900": 46.89, "apex_2025": 44.22, "d_apex": -2.67, "rc_cd_1900": 2.37, "rc_cd_2025": 2.37, "d_rc_cd_pct": -0.3, "rc_apex_1900": 3.33, "rc_apex_2025": 3.72, "d_rc_apex_pct": 11.7, "alpha_ratio_cd": 0.902, "alpha_ratio_apex": 0.736 }, { "place": "Rome", "lat": 41.9, "lon": 12.5, "cd_1900": 42.42, "cd_2025": 41.81, "d_cd": -0.61, "apex_1900": 37.39, "apex_2025": 36.11, "d_apex": -1.29, "rc_cd_1900": 4.53, "rc_cd_2025": 4.36, "d_rc_cd_pct": -4.0, "rc_apex_1900": 6.08, "rc_apex_2025": 6.01, "d_rc_apex_pct": -1.2, "alpha_ratio_cd": 0.932, "alpha_ratio_apex": 1.0 }, { "place": "Madrid", "lat": 40.42, "lon": -3.7, "cd_1900": 44.16, "cd_2025": 42.94, "d_cd": -1.22, "apex_1900": 39.24, "apex_2025": 33.87, "d_apex": -5.38, "rc_cd_1900": 4.05, "rc_cd_2025": 4.05, "d_rc_cd_pct": 0.2, "rc_apex_1900": 5.49, "rc_apex_2025": 6.71, "d_rc_apex_pct": 22.1, "alpha_ratio_cd": 0.869, "alpha_ratio_apex": 1.0 }, { "place": "Moscow", "lat": 55.76, "lon": 37.62, "cd_1900": 51.0, "cd_2025": 51.52, "d_cd": 0.51, "apex_1900": 49.68, "apex_2025": 52.37, "d_apex": 2.69, "rc_cd_1900": 2.39, "rc_cd_2025": 2.12, "d_rc_cd_pct": -11.6, "rc_apex_1900": 2.68, "rc_apex_2025": 1.96, "d_rc_apex_pct": -26.8, "alpha_ratio_cd": 1.061, "alpha_ratio_apex": 1.363 }, { "place": "Tokyo", "lat": 35.68, "lon": 139.69, "cd_1900": 25.34, "cd_2025": 27.6, "d_cd": 2.26, "apex_1900": 29.05, "apex_2025": 28.92, "d_apex": -0.12, "rc_cd_1900": 10.19, "rc_cd_2025": 8.7, "d_rc_cd_pct": -14.6, "rc_apex_1900": 8.92, "rc_apex_2025": 8.28, "d_rc_apex_pct": -7.1, "alpha_ratio_cd": 1.0, "alpha_ratio_apex": 1.0 }, { "place": "Johannesburg", "lat": -26.2, "lon": 28.05, "cd_1900": -26.85, "cd_2025": -27.42, "d_cd": -0.57, "apex_1900": -34.71, "apex_2025": -36.17, "d_apex": -1.47, "rc_cd_1900": 9.68, "rc_cd_2025": 8.76, "d_rc_cd_pct": -9.5, "rc_apex_1900": 6.97, "rc_apex_2025": 5.99, "d_rc_apex_pct": -14.1, "alpha_ratio_cd": 1.0, "alpha_ratio_apex": 1.0 }, { "place": "Buenos Aires", "lat": -34.6, "lon": -58.38, "cd_1900": -23.2, "cd_2025": -25.47, "d_cd": -2.27, "apex_1900": -18.08, "apex_2025": -25.81, "d_apex": -7.73, "rc_cd_1900": 10.9, "rc_cd_2025": 9.37, "d_rc_cd_pct": -14.0, "rc_apex_1900": 12.47, "rc_apex_2025": 9.27, "d_rc_apex_pct": -25.7, "alpha_ratio_cd": 1.0, "alpha_ratio_apex": 1.0 }, { "place": "Sao Paulo", "lat": -23.55, "lon": -46.63, "cd_1900": -12.81, "cd_2025": -15.09, "d_cd": -2.28, "apex_1900": -8.01, "apex_2025": -21.82, "d_apex": -13.81, "rc_cd_1900": 13.8, "rc_cd_2025": 12.26, "d_rc_cd_pct": -11.2, "rc_apex_1900": 14.68, "rc_apex_2025": 10.48, "d_rc_apex_pct": -28.6, "alpha_ratio_cd": 1.0, "alpha_ratio_apex": 1.0 }, { "place": "Sydney", "lat": -33.87, "lon": 151.21, "cd_1900": -42.04, "cd_2025": -40.05, "d_cd": 1.99, "apex_1900": -42.02, "apex_2025": -43.25, "d_apex": -1.24, "rc_cd_1900": 4.65, "rc_cd_2025": 4.85, "d_rc_cd_pct": 4.3, "rc_apex_1900": 4.65, "rc_apex_2025": 3.97, "d_rc_apex_pct": -14.7, "alpha_ratio_cd": 0.795, "alpha_ratio_apex": 1.153 } ], "herbst_check": { "Kiel": { "herbst": [ 2.64, 2.49, 2.53, 2.52 ], "ours_apex": [ 2.38, 2.31, 2.36, 2.34 ] }, "Moscow": { "herbst": [ 2.7, 2.38, 2.37, 2.29 ], "ours_apex": [ 2.6, 2.31, 2.27, 2.15 ] }, "Mexico City": { "herbst": [ 11.38, 9.79, 9.08, 8.21 ], "ours_apex": [ 9.59, 8.98, 8.8, 8.52 ] }, "British Virgin Isl.": { "herbst": [ 7.48, 7.84, 8.18, 9.74 ], "ours_apex": [ 8.01, 7.84, 8.28, 8.83 ] } }, "oval_shift_deg": { "2025 vs 1900": { "65.0": { "Siscoe & Chen (alpha=1/3)": 0.35, "Siebert (alpha=0)": 1.08, "Vogt & Glassmeier (alpha=1/2)": 0.0 }, "60.0": { "Siscoe & Chen (alpha=1/3)": 0.44, "Siebert (alpha=0)": 1.34, "Vogt & Glassmeier (alpha=1/2)": 0.0 }, "55.0": { "Siscoe & Chen (alpha=1/3)": 0.53, "Siebert (alpha=0)": 1.63, "Vogt & Glassmeier (alpha=1/2)": -0.0 }, "50.0": { "Siscoe & Chen (alpha=1/3)": 0.64, "Siebert (alpha=0)": 1.96, "Vogt & Glassmeier (alpha=1/2)": 0.0 }, "45.0": { "Siscoe & Chen (alpha=1/3)": 0.76, "Siebert (alpha=0)": 2.36, "Vogt & Glassmeier (alpha=1/2)": 0.0 }, "40.0": { "Siscoe & Chen (alpha=1/3)": 0.91, "Siebert (alpha=0)": 2.83, "Vogt & Glassmeier (alpha=1/2)": -0.0 }, "30.0": { "Siscoe & Chen (alpha=1/3)": 1.34, "Siebert (alpha=0)": 4.28, "Vogt & Glassmeier (alpha=1/2)": 0.0 } }, "9% weaker": { "65.0": { "Siscoe & Chen (alpha=1/3)": 0.42, "Siebert (alpha=0)": 1.3, "Vogt & Glassmeier (alpha=1/2)": 0.0 }, "60.0": { "Siscoe & Chen (alpha=1/3)": 0.53, "Siebert (alpha=0)": 1.61, "Vogt & Glassmeier (alpha=1/2)": 0.0 }, "55.0": { "Siscoe & Chen (alpha=1/3)": 0.64, "Siebert (alpha=0)": 1.96, "Vogt & Glassmeier (alpha=1/2)": -0.0 }, "50.0": { "Siscoe & Chen (alpha=1/3)": 0.77, "Siebert (alpha=0)": 2.36, "Vogt & Glassmeier (alpha=1/2)": 0.0 }, "45.0": { "Siscoe & Chen (alpha=1/3)": 0.92, "Siebert (alpha=0)": 2.84, "Vogt & Glassmeier (alpha=1/2)": 0.0 }, "40.0": { "Siscoe & Chen (alpha=1/3)": 1.09, "Siebert (alpha=0)": 3.42, "Vogt & Glassmeier (alpha=1/2)": -0.0 }, "30.0": { "Siscoe & Chen (alpha=1/3)": 1.61, "Siebert (alpha=0)": 5.21, "Vogt & Glassmeier (alpha=1/2)": 0.0 } } }, "magnetopause": { "2025_vs_1900_RE": 9.74, "9pct_weaker_RE": 9.69, "pressure_2_to_x_nPa_RE": { "10.0": 7.65, "20.0": 6.81, "50.0": 5.85, "100.0": 5.21 } }, "production": { "250": { "Q_1900": 2.251, "Q_2025": 2.352, "ratio": 1.0449 }, "300": { "Q_1900": 2.154, "Q_2025": 2.25, "ratio": 1.0448 }, "400": { "Q_1900": 1.985, "Q_2025": 2.073, "ratio": 1.0444 }, "500": { "Q_1900": 1.843, "Q_2025": 1.924, "ratio": 1.044 }, "650": { "Q_1900": 1.666, "Q_2025": 1.738, "ratio": 1.0433 }, "800": { "Q_1900": 1.521, "Q_2025": 1.586, "ratio": 1.0426 }, "1000": { "Q_1900": 1.365, "Q_2025": 1.422, "ratio": 1.0417 }, "1300": { "Q_1900": 1.183, "Q_2025": 1.23, "ratio": 1.0403 }, "1500": { "Q_1900": 1.086, "Q_2025": 1.129, "ratio": 1.0394 } }, "production_check_650MV_M7.8": 1.72, "production_solar_cycle_ratio_300_vs_1300MV": 1.83, "production_check_M6_M10_vs_M7.8_at_650MV": [ 1.148, 0.874 ], "production_check_300_1300MV_at_M7.8": [ 2.23, 1.22 ], "oulu_solar_cycle_drop_pct": { "cycle 20": 11.4, "cycle 21": 13.4, "cycle 22": 15.8, "cycle 23": 12.0, "cycle 24": 9.7, "cycle 25": 16.0 }, "oulu_forbush_pct": { "October 2003": -24.6, "May 2024": -10.8 }, "tpl007_factor": { "-3": 0.708, "-2": 0.795, "-1": 0.891, "-0.5": 0.944, "0.5": 1.059, "1": 1.122, "2": 1.259, "3": 1.412 }, "oval_edge_50_shift_deg": 0.64, "net_distance_deg": { "Edmonton": { "cd": 0.04, "apex": 0.54 }, "Winnipeg": { "cd": 0.78, "apex": 1.43 }, "Minneapolis": { "cd": 0.96, "apex": 1.31 }, "Chicago": { "cd": 1.15, "apex": 1.69 }, "Montreal": { "cd": 1.49, "apex": 4.55 }, "New York": { "cd": 1.48, "apex": 4.25 }, "Washington DC": { "cd": 1.42, "apex": 3.41 }, "Seattle": { "cd": -0.24, "apex": -0.07 }, "Oslo": { "cd": -0.29, "apex": -0.62 }, "Stockholm": { "cd": -0.54, "apex": -1.48 }, "Helsinki": { "cd": -0.81, "apex": -2.25 }, "Malmo": { "cd": -0.27, "apex": -0.57 }, "Edinburgh": { "cd": 0.33, "apex": 1.89 }, "London": { "cd": 0.3, "apex": 2.1 }, "Berlin": { "cd": -0.22, "apex": -0.4 }, "Paris": { "cd": 0.25, "apex": 2.03 }, "Moscow": { "cd": -1.15, "apex": -3.33 } }, "rates_2015_2020": { "Edmonton": { "cd": -0.0326, "apex": -0.0368 }, "Leeds": { "cd": -0.0076, "apex": -0.0114 }, "Salekhard": { "cd": 0.0464, "apex": 0.0647 }, "Dunedin": { "cd": -0.0182, "apex": -0.0024 } }, "grid": { "1900.0": { "mean_proxy_GV": 8.078, "mean_cd_GV": 8.143, "area_below_1GV_proxy_pct": 14.1, "area_below_1GV_cd_pct": 13.8 }, "2025.0": { "mean_proxy_GV": 7.366, "mean_cd_GV": 7.524, "area_below_1GV_proxy_pct": 14.5, "area_below_1GV_cd_pct": 14.4 } } }, "kp_gscale_counts": { "record_ends": "2026-10-25", "complete_cycles": [ 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24 ], "per_cycle": { "17": { "days": 3805, "intervals": [ 1401, 458, 184, 87, 6 ], "days_at_level": [ 518, 202, 78, 41, 5 ] }, "18": { "days": 3712, "intervals": [ 2013, 796, 243, 111, 2 ], "days_at_level": [ 564, 333, 124, 52, 2 ] }, "19": { "days": 3836, "intervals": [ 1692, 655, 259, 174, 8 ], "days_at_level": [ 578, 283, 105, 74, 7 ] }, "20": { "days": 4169, "intervals": [ 1431, 439, 150, 55, 4 ], "days_at_level": [ 534, 202, 63, 34, 4 ] }, "21": { "days": 3836, "intervals": [ 1744, 594, 212, 78, 3 ], "days_at_level": [ 636, 272, 95, 39, 3 ] }, "22": { "days": 3622, "intervals": [ 1698, 576, 223, 86, 2 ], "days_at_level": [ 571, 250, 101, 41, 2 ] }, "23": { "days": 4505, "intervals": [ 1283, 434, 164, 86, 4 ], "days_at_level": [ 487, 189, 78, 40, 3 ] }, "24": { "days": 4017, "intervals": [ 611, 189, 28, 12, 0 ], "days_at_level": [ 257, 97, 18, 9, 0 ] }, "25": { "days": 2521, "intervals": [ 507, 146, 67, 34, 2 ], "days_at_level": [ 226, 66, 28, 16, 1 ] } }, "mean_per_complete_cycle": { "G1": { "three_hour_intervals": 1484.1, "days_with_this_as_highest": 518.1, "days_at_or_above": 873.9 }, "G2": { "three_hour_intervals": 517.6, "days_with_this_as_highest": 228.5, "days_at_or_above": 355.8 }, "G3": { "three_hour_intervals": 182.9, "days_with_this_as_highest": 82.8, "days_at_or_above": 127.2 }, "G4": { "three_hour_intervals": 86.1, "days_with_this_as_highest": 41.2, "days_at_or_above": 44.5 }, "G5": { "three_hour_intervals": 3.6, "days_with_this_as_highest": 3.2, "days_at_or_above": 3.2 } }, "days": { "1989-03-13": { "Kp": [ 6.0, 7.667, 8.667, 8.333, 8.333, 8.333, 8.667, 9.0 ], "max_level": 5, "Ap": 246 }, "1989-03-14": { "Kp": [ 9.0, 7.667, 7.667, 5.667, 5.0, 5.333, 7.667, 7.333 ], "max_level": 5, "Ap": 158 }, "2003-10-29": { "Kp": [ 4.667, 4.0, 9.0, 8.0, 7.667, 7.667, 8.667, 8.667 ], "max_level": 5, "Ap": 204 }, "2003-10-30": { "Kp": [ 8.667, 7.333, 5.333, 4.667, 5.0, 7.0, 9.0, 9.0 ], "max_level": 5, "Ap": 191 }, "2003-11-20": { "Kp": [ 1.0, 3.667, 6.333, 6.333, 7.667, 8.667, 8.667, 8.0 ], "max_level": 4, "Ap": 150 }, "2022-02-03": { "Kp": [ 2.0, 4.333, 5.0, 5.333, 4.0, 3.0, 3.0, 2.667 ], "max_level": 1, "Ap": 26 }, "2022-02-04": { "Kp": [ 4.0, 4.0, 3.667, 3.667, 4.0, 5.333, 5.0, 4.0 ], "max_level": 1, "Ap": 32 }, "2024-05-10": { "Kp": [ 2.667, 2.667, 2.333, 2.0, 3.667, 7.667, 8.667, 8.667 ], "max_level": 4, "Ap": 105 }, "2024-05-11": { "Kp": [ 9.0, 8.333, 8.333, 9.0, 8.667, 8.333, 7.667, 7.667 ], "max_level": 5, "Ap": 271 }, "2024-10-10": { "Kp": [ 2.0, 2.667, 1.333, 2.667, 3.667, 7.667, 8.333, 8.667 ], "max_level": 4, "Ap": 97 }, "2024-10-11": { "Kp": [ 8.333, 7.667, 7.667, 7.667, 6.333, 4.0, 3.0, 3.333 ], "max_level": 4, "Ap": 116 } }, "top_daily_Ap": [ { "date": "1960-11-13", "Ap": 280 }, { "date": "2024-05-11", "Ap": 271 }, { "date": "1989-03-13", "Ap": 246 }, { "date": "1960-04-01", "Ap": 241 }, { "date": "1959-07-15", "Ap": 236 }, { "date": "1941-09-18", "Ap": 232 }, { "date": "1941-07-05", "Ap": 222 }, { "date": "1946-03-28", "Ap": 213 }, { "date": "1941-03-01", "Ap": 207 }, { "date": "2003-10-29", "Ap": 204 } ], "days_with_Kp_9_since_1985": [ "1986-02-08", "1989-03-13", "1989-03-14", "2000-07-15", "2003-10-29", "2003-10-30", "2024-05-11" ] }, "timescale_ladder_years": [ { "rung": "A human generation", "years": 26.9, "years_to": null, "kind": "human" }, { "rung": "“Two or three generations” (the episode’s claim)", "years": 50, "years_to": 90, "kind": "claim" }, { "rung": "Direct measurements of the field’s strength, since 1840", "years": 185, "years_to": null, "kind": "human" }, { "rung": "Halving today’s dipole, on any of five extrapolations", "years": 255, "years_to": 1355, "kind": "field" }, { "rung": "Laschamp excursion: its directional changes", "years": 640, "years_to": null, "kind": "field" }, { "rung": "Laschamp: its dipole’s fall", "years": 1500, "years_to": 1900, "kind": "field" }, { "rung": "Laschamp: its expression at Earth’s surface", "years": 2000, "years_to": null, "kind": "field" }, { "rung": "Laschamp: its underlying process, in the core", "years": 5000, "years_to": null, "kind": "field" }, { "rung": "A reversal’s change of direction, average of four", "years": 7000, "years_to": null, "kind": "field" }, { "rung": "The whole Matuyama–Brunhes reversal", "years": 22000, "years_to": 30000, "kind": "field" }, { "rung": "Average time between reversals, last 25 million years", "years": 200000, "years_to": null, "kind": "field" }, { "rung": "Time since the last reversal", "years": 773000, "years_to": null, "kind": "field" } ], "carrington_per_decade_pct": [ { "study": "Riley 2012", "method": "power law; Dst below −850 nT", "estimate": 12.0, "low": null, "high": null, "range": "stated; no range" }, { "study": "Love 2012", "method": "counting storms since 1859; −Dst of 1,760 nT or more", "estimate": 6.3, "low": 0.0, "high": 23.0, "range": "95% credibility, under 0.1% to 23%" }, { "study": "Kataoka 2013", "method": "89-year storm list from Kakioka", "estimate": null, "low": 4.0, "high": 6.0, "range": "range given" }, { "study": "Love and others 2015", "method": "lognormal; −Dst of 850 nT or more", "estimate": 10.7, "low": 4.1, "high": 21.4, "range": "our conversion of 1.13 a century, 95% range 0.42–2.41" }, { "study": "Riley and Love 2017", "method": "power law", "estimate": 10.3, "low": 0.9, "high": 18.7, "range": "95% confidence" }, { "study": "Riley and Love 2017", "method": "lognormal", "estimate": 3.0, "low": 0.6, "high": 9.0, "range": "95% confidence" }, { "study": "Moriña and others 2019", "method": "Weibull waiting times; Dst below −850 nT", "estimate": 0.92, "low": 0.46, "high": 1.88, "range": "95% confidence" }, { "study": "Chapman and others 2020", "method": "aa index since 1868", "estimate": 6.8, "low": null, "high": null, "range": "our conversion of 0.7% a year; no range" }, { "study": "Lloyd’s and AER 2013", "method": "historical aurora records", "estimate": 6.4, "low": 3.9, "high": 9.5, "range": "our conversion of a 150-year return period, 100–250" } ], "ground_dose_bound": { "method": "With no field, every place gets today's polar-cap sea-level dose (UNSCEAR 2000, paragraphs 20-25; Sato 2016)", "low_latitude_now_nSv_per_h": [ 29.3, 32.75 ], "no_field_nSv_per_h": [ 42.8, 44.0 ], "extra_mSv_per_year_outdoors": [ 0.1, 0.12 ], "natural_total_mSv_per_year": 3.0 } }