{ "what": "Numbers behind factchecked.science/s0-news-2026-10-20/, from geomag_sh.py (IGRF-14, WMM2025, NOAA pole positions)", "inputs_sha256": { "igrf14/igrf14coeffs.txt": "8f8d88403028fc4ee92c4f38d97b46e0a87e2cfc496045b43c9e26c1d6b0903c", "wmm2025/WMM2025COF.zip": "999080a12c95122c2031aeac8be77229d97584530e87e0f1a6df7d946ecf90c5", "ncei-poles/NP.xy": "7c329dcebbc2dc40dce7a8b109a27bcd5b80a439b296d304d16efc12a0f913e7" }, "validation": { "test_points": 12, "largest_abs_difference_nT_or_nT_per_yr": { "X": 0.048, "Y": 0.044, "Z": 0.049, "F": 0.045, "Xd": 0.045, "Yd": 0.049, "Zd": 0.047, "Fd": 0.05 }, "pass": true }, "field_2025": { "grid_step_deg": 2.0, "weakest_F_nT": 22076, "weakest_at": [ -27.0, -60.0 ], "fastest_decline_nT_per_yr": -128.3, "fastest_decline_at": [ 35.0, -92.0 ], "fastest_rise_nT_per_yr": 104.7, "fastest_rise_at": [ -27.0, 56.0 ], "share_of_surface_below_threshold_percent": { "-50": 31.1, "-75": 15.1, "-100": 5.1 }, "wmm2025_fastest_decline_nT_per_yr": -126.1, "wmm2025_fastest_decline_at": [ 35.0, -90.0 ], "regions": { "North America (lat 25..60, lon -130..-60)": { "mean_dFdt": -105.8, "min_dFdt": -128.3, "min_at": [ 35.0, -92.0 ] }, "Contiguous USA approx. 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"moment_1e22_Am2": 8.321 }, { "epoch": 1905.0, "g10_nT": -31464.0, "g1_nT": 32096.4, "moment_1e22_Am2": 8.301 }, { "epoch": 1910.0, "g10_nT": -31354.0, "g1_nT": 31986.5, "moment_1e22_Am2": 8.272 }, { "epoch": 1915.0, "g10_nT": -31212.0, "g1_nT": 31843.7, "moment_1e22_Am2": 8.235 }, { "epoch": 1920.0, "g10_nT": -31060.0, "g1_nT": 31690.0, "moment_1e22_Am2": 8.196 }, { "epoch": 1925.0, "g10_nT": -30926.0, "g1_nT": 31553.6, "moment_1e22_Am2": 8.16 }, { "epoch": 1930.0, "g10_nT": -30805.0, "g1_nT": 31433.2, "moment_1e22_Am2": 8.129 }, { "epoch": 1935.0, "g10_nT": -30715.0, "g1_nT": 31345.0, "moment_1e22_Am2": 8.106 }, { "epoch": 1940.0, "g10_nT": -30654.0, "g1_nT": 31285.9, "moment_1e22_Am2": 8.091 }, { "epoch": 1945.0, "g10_nT": -30594.0, "g1_nT": 31224.5, "moment_1e22_Am2": 8.075 }, { "epoch": 1950.0, "g10_nT": -30554.0, "g1_nT": 31183.7, "moment_1e22_Am2": 8.065 }, { "epoch": 1955.0, "g10_nT": -30500.0, "g1_nT": 31129.2, "moment_1e22_Am2": 8.051 }, { "epoch": 1960.0, "g10_nT": -30421.0, 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"from": 1990.0, "to": 1995.0, "nT_per_yr": -16.6 }, { "from": 1995.0, "to": 2000.0, "nT_per_yr": -14.5 }, { "from": 2000.0, "to": 2005.0, "nT_per_yr": -13.0 }, { "from": 2005.0, "to": 2010.0, "nT_per_yr": -11.6 }, { "from": 2010.0, "to": 2015.0, "nT_per_yr": -11.0 }, { "from": 2015.0, "to": 2020.0, "nT_per_yr": -7.6 }, { "from": 2020.0, "to": 2025.0, "nT_per_yr": -10.7 } ], "fastest_five_year_pace_since_1945": { "nT_per_yr": 24.0, "from": 1970.0, "to": 1975.0 }, "note": "Finlay et al. 2016's 9% since 1840, 16 nT/yr average and 'zero within 1,900 years' refer to this axial dipole" }, "straight_line_projections": { "forecast_2025_2030": { "rate_nT_per_yr": 16.2, "half": { "years": 918, "year_AD": 2943 }, "laschamp_5pct": { "years": 1744, "year_AD": 3769 }, "5_uT": { "years": 1527, "year_AD": 3552 }, "1_uT": { "years": 1774, "year_AD": 3799 }, "zero": { "years": 1836, "year_AD": 3861 } }, "average_1840_2010_axial": { "rate_nT_per_yr": 16.0, "half": { "years": 929, "year_AD": 2954 }, "laschamp_5pct": { "years": 1765, "year_AD": 3790 }, "5_uT": { "years": 1546, "year_AD": 3571 }, "1_uT": { "years": 1796, "year_AD": 3821 }, "zero": { "years": 1858, "year_AD": 3883 } }, "fastest_since_1945": { "rate_nT_per_yr": 27.8, "half": { "years": 535, "year_AD": 2560 }, "laschamp_5pct": { "years": 1016, "year_AD": 3041 }, "5_uT": { "years": 890, "year_AD": 2915 }, "1_uT": { "years": 1034, "year_AD": 3059 }, "zero": { "years": 1070, "year_AD": 3095 } } } }, "north_dip_pole": { "yearly_speeds": [ { "year": 1985, "lat": 77.398, "lon": 257.391, "km_per_yr": 16.2 }, { "year": 1986, "lat": 77.537, "lon": 257.184, "km_per_yr": 16.4 }, { "year": 1987, "lat": 77.677, "lon": 256.973, "km_per_yr": 16.3 }, { "year": 1988, "lat": 77.816, "lon": 256.757, "km_per_yr": 16.4 }, { "year": 1989, "lat": 77.956, "lon": 256.537, "km_per_yr": 16.3 }, { "year": 1990, "lat": 78.095, "lon": 256.311, "km_per_yr": 22.3 }, { "year": 1991, "lat": 78.286, "lon": 256.01, "km_per_yr": 22.2 }, { "year": 1992, "lat": 78.476, "lon": 255.699, "km_per_yr": 22.2 }, { "year": 1993, "lat": 78.665, "lon": 255.38, "km_per_yr": 22.2 }, { "year": 1994, "lat": 78.854, "lon": 255.05, "km_per_yr": 22.2 }, { "year": 1995, "lat": 79.043, "lon": 254.71, "km_per_yr": 44.2 }, { "year": 1996, "lat": 79.417, "lon": 253.995, "km_per_yr": 45.2 }, { "year": 1997, "lat": 79.798, "lon": 253.211, "km_per_yr": 46.1 }, { "year": 1998, "lat": 80.185, "lon": 252.35, "km_per_yr": 46.9 }, { "year": 1999, "lat": 80.576, "lon": 251.403, "km_per_yr": 47.8 }, { "year": 2000, "lat": 80.972, "lon": 250.36, "km_per_yr": 55.7 }, { "year": 2001, "lat": 81.427, "lon": 248.992, "km_per_yr": 56.0 }, { "year": 2002, "lat": 81.879, "lon": 247.468, "km_per_yr": 56.0 }, { "year": 2003, "lat": 82.325, "lon": 245.769, "km_per_yr": 55.7 }, { "year": 2004, "lat": 82.762, "lon": 243.881, "km_per_yr": 55.1 }, { "year": 2005, "lat": 83.186, "lon": 241.782, "km_per_yr": 55.3 }, { "year": 2006, "lat": 83.602, "lon": 239.408, "km_per_yr": 53.9 }, { "year": 2007, "lat": 83.995, "lon": 236.784, "km_per_yr": 52.3 }, { "year": 2008, "lat": 84.363, "lon": 233.9, "km_per_yr": 50.3 }, { "year": 2009, "lat": 84.702, "lon": 230.751, "km_per_yr": 50.2 }, { "year": 2010, "lat": 85.02, "lon": 227.166, "km_per_yr": 57.6 }, { "year": 2011, "lat": 85.37, "lon": 222.596, "km_per_yr": 55.6 }, { "year": 2012, "lat": 85.676, "lon": 217.521, "km_per_yr": 53.3 }, { "year": 2013, "lat": 85.933, "lon": 211.982, "km_per_yr": 50.9 }, { "year": 2014, "lat": 86.138, "lon": 206.059, "km_per_yr": 50.4 }, { "year": 2015, "lat": 86.305, "lon": 199.659, "km_per_yr": 55.2 }, { "year": 2016, "lat": 86.467, "lon": 192.206, "km_per_yr": 53.0 }, { "year": 2017, "lat": 86.562, "lon": 184.522, "km_per_yr": 50.7 }, { "year": 2018, "lat": 86.598, "lon": 176.901, "km_per_yr": 48.4 }, { "year": 2019, "lat": 86.568, "lon": 169.615, "km_per_yr": 46.1 }, { "year": 2020, "lat": 86.494, "lon": 162.867, "km_per_yr": 43.2 }, { "year": 2021, "lat": 86.4, "lon": 156.786, "km_per_yr": 41.5 }, { "year": 2022, "lat": 86.275, "lon": 151.272, "km_per_yr": 40.0 }, { "year": 2023, "lat": 86.126, "lon": 146.334, "km_per_yr": 38.5 }, { "year": 2024, "lat": 85.958, "lon": 141.945, "km_per_yr": 37.0 } ], "five_year_mean_speeds_km_per_yr": { "1990-1995": 22.2, "1995-2000": 46.0, "2000-2005": 55.7, "2005-2010": 52.4, "2010-2015": 53.6, "2015-2020": 50.7, "2020-2025": 40.0 }, "straight_line_1831_to_2025_km": 2470 } }